采用MMT恐掀巨浪，并引发史上最大规模财富损失

著名投资分析专家约翰·莫尔丁 (John Mauldin)近日撰文称，许多聪明、见多识广的思想家都认为，现代货币理论(MMT)可能在未来10年内付诸实践。而如果人们尝试使用该理论，则将结束美元的储备货币地位，并产生失控的通货膨胀。这将从本质上摧毁“婴儿潮一代”退休的能力，就像今天大多数人想象的那样。他还指出，如果MMT真的付诸实践，他将重新配置投资组合，并大举投资黄金、房地产和一些生物科技公司。

图片 | Pixabay

前所未有的刺激

许多人都读过我对本世纪20年代末美国债务规模或达45万亿美元的分析。当我开始谈论采取20万亿美元额外量化宽松政策的可能性时，这个问题显然让一些人感到不安。

Many participants had read my analysis of the potential for $45 trillion worth of US debt by the end of the 2020s.When I started talking about the potential for $20 trillion of additional quantitative easing, it was clear the question made some uncomfortable.

人们普遍认为两党都无法平衡预算。特朗普和国会之间的最新“协议”在未来两年增加了3200亿美元的开支。之前的“自动减支”协议至少曾试图限制支出，但现已被抛诸脑后。与实际情况相比，目前的赤字预测似乎是温和的。

There was general agreement that neither political party can balance the budget. The latest “deal” between Trump and Congress raised spending $320 billion over the next two years. The previous “sequester” deal that at least tried to limit spending is out the window. Current deficit projections will seem mild compared to what we actually get.

正如我几周前所说，根据国会预算办公室今年早些时候的预测，假设出现一次经济衰退，到本世纪20年代末，美国国家债务将升至近45万亿美元。这项新协议将在这个基础上再增加至少1.5万亿到2万亿美元。如果出现第二次衰退，我们预计这个数字将超过50万亿美元。

As I said a few weeks ago, using CBO projections from earlier this year and assuming one recession, the national debt would rise to almost $45 trillion by the end of the 2020s. This new deal will add at least another $1.5 to $2 trillion to that amount. If there is a second recession, we would be looking at north of $50 trillion.

我们连用于偿还联邦债务的40万亿美元资金都没有，更不要说50万亿了。它将占用所有原本为生产性民营企业提供的资金，并大幅降低国内生产总值(GDP)增长率。这就是我预计会出现大规模、目前难以想象的量化宽松的原因。

We don’t have $40 trillion, let alone $50 trillion, to put into federal debt. It would crowd out all funding for productive private enterprises and sharply reduce GDP growth. Which is why I expect to see massive, currently inconceivable amounts of quantitative easing.

不可思议的想法

凄惨且黯淡？也不算是。这个数字来自美国国会预算办公室。从政治上讲，他们不可能预测经济衰退，所以他们并没有。我也承认，从统计数据上看，预测经济衰退也是不可能的，所以他们也没有。

Doom and gloom? Not really. The math is from the Congressional Budget Office. It is politically impossible for them to project a recession, so they don’t. I would also admit that it is also statistically impossible to predict a recession, so they don’t.

假设经济衰退发生在2020年或2022年，在下图中，你可以看到赤字和收入的变化。

Assuming recession in either 2020 or 2022, you can see what happens to the deficits and revenues on the charts below.

第一张图表假设2020年经济出现衰退。请注意，到2025年左右，财政收入将少于强制性支出，然后再也不会超过强制性支出加国防支出。到本世纪20年代末，强制性支出将再次上升，从而消耗所有税收收入。同样地，这些还并未包含大量的预算外开支。

This first graph assumes a recession in 2020. Note that revenues fall below mandatory spending by the middle of the decade, then never get back above mandatory spending plus defense spending. Then by the end of the 2020s, mandatory spending will again rise to consume all tax revenue. And again, these don’t include significant off-budget spending.

下一个图表假设经济衰退发生在2022年，而不是2020年。除了赤字要到2023年才开始达到2万亿美元，其他情况基本相同。同样，这也使用了国会预算办公室的预测，并按照2008年至2009年下降以及之后回升的百分比调整了收入。

This next graph assumes recession in 2022 instead of 2020. The pattern is basically the same, except that the $2-trillion deficits don’t begin until 2023. Again, this uses actual CBO projections and adjusts revenues by the same percentage they fell in 2008–2009, and recovered thereafter.

未来看起来很严峻

许多人显然和我一样沮丧。让我告诉你，我已经不再沮丧了。我非常担心美国的未来，以及我们的孩子和退休人员的未来。

Many people were clearly just as frustrated as I am. Let me tell you, I am way past frustration. I am seriously worried for the future of the Republic and our children and retirees.

如果我们引入MMT，结果正如我们所有人所认为的那样，我认为一些州将有50%的可能希望脱离联邦政府。你这么认为吗? 当你以“人人享有正义和平等”的名义推行破坏社会结构的政策时，那些在这一进程中受损的一方将予以反击。

If we introduce MMT and the result is what we all think it will be, I think there is a 50–50 chance some states will want to secede from the union. Do you agree or disagree? When you undertake policies that will destroy the very fabric of society in the name of “justice and equality for all,” those damaged in the process will push back.

我预测，一场史无前例的危机将导致历史上规模最大的一场财富损失。而且，大多数投资者完全没有意识到目前正在积聚的压力。

I predict an unprecedented crisis that will lead to the biggest wipeout of wealth in history. And most investors are completely unaware of the pressure building right now.（完）

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